Research and Publications

Home / Research and Publications / Kenya Listed Insurance Companies H1’2016 Report, & Cytonn Weekly #37

Kenya Listed Insurance Companies H1’2016 Report, & Cytonn Weekly #37

By Cytonn Research Team, September 18, 2016

Executive Summary

Fixed Income: Yields on Treasury bills were on a downward trend with the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day papers coming in at 8.0%, 10.8% and 10.9% from 8.1%, 10.9% and 11.1%, respectively. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) confirmed that the base rate cited in the Banking (Amendment) Act, 2015 is the Central Bank Rate (CBR), currently at 10.5%;

Equities: During the week, the Kenyan equities market registered mixed performance with NASI and NSE 25 gaining by 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, while NSE 20 declined marginally by 0.1%. Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA) released H1’2016 numbers for the insurance industry showing that total gross insurance premiums registered a year-on-year growth of 8.6%;

Private Equity: Fundraising activities witnessed in Africa have continued to drive private equity activity in the region as CDC Group, the UK’s development finance institution, allocated USD 20.0 mn to EuroMena III and USD 20.0 mn to Atlantic Coast Regional Fund II (ACRF II) (ABI). IRESS, a supplier of technology for financial markets is set to acquire INET BFA for USD 10.5 mn by November 30th, 2016;

Real Estate: Kenya Tourism Board (KTB) launched a 6-month long market campaign across various cities in India. The recently released Knight Frank Prime Global Cities Index” indicated that prices of luxury residential property increased by 2.1% in Q2’2016 compared to a similar period in 2015;

Focus of the Week: We focus on the Cytonn H1’2016 Insurance report, analyzing the current state and future outlook of the industry; and in our view, rank the listed insurance firms based on their attractiveness and stability for investment from a franchise value and from a future growth opportunity perspective.

Weekly Company Updates

  • This week we launch another real estate product, The Ridge, a comprehensive, luxurious lifestyle apartment community in Ridgeways, right on the bypass. We will be hosting an exhibition of The Ridge on Saturday 24th September 2016 from 12.00 PM at our Liaison offices parking lot. Stop by to see this aspirational development, and enjoy some food and drinks. We will have a one-day discount rate at the event. To register for the event, email clientservices@cytonn.com . For more information, see link: The Ridge
  • Cytonn Asset Managers, our affiliate for conducting regulated investment business this week filed for a license with the Capital Markets Authority. Commenting on the filing, Elizabeth Nkukuu, CFA said that “We have been able to deliver exceptionally attractive returns to our institutional and private high-net-worth clients, based on attractive returns backed by real estate, private equity and structured products. We want to enable clients in regulated vehicles such as pension schemes and unit trust funds to also access these returns.”
  • Our annual 6-week US Diaspora Road Show continues. To find out where we will be next and register, see link:The US Diaspora Road Show
  • We are currently carrying out a survey on the hospitality industry in Kenya for a report we are working on that will help us in understanding the consumer’s needs, tastes and preferences. Kindly assist us by filling out this questionnaire:Hospitality Survey
  • To invest in any of our current or upcoming real estate projects, please visit Cytonn Real Estate.We continue to see very strong interest in our products, particularly The Alma, which is now 50.0% sold and has delivered an annualized return of 55.0% p.a. for investors who bought off-plan. We have 12 investment ready projects, offering attractive development returns and buyer's returns of a minimum of 25.0% p.a. See further details here: Summary of investment ready projects
  • We recently launched Taraji Heights, an integrated lifestyle development located approximately 2.0 km from Ruaka town center on a 2.8-acre site touching Limuru road. This is one of our investment-ready products offering between 25.0% - 30.0% return to buyers. The project, whose estimated value is Kshs 2.5 bn, will comprise of (i) residential apartments with 2 and 3 bedroom options, (ii) a retail component, and (iii) a borehole and sewer treatment facility. We are currently at design stage and are targeting to break ground in Q1’2017. Our clients are our number one the agenda and as such we are extending a special offer open only to them. This will be for a limited number of units at 15.0% discount from the introductory price. Early stage investors in our other Ruaka Development, The Alma, have recorded capital gains as high as 55.0%, annualized, since purchasing their units less than one year ago. See introductory prices outlined below:

APARTMENT TYPE

UNITS ON OFFER

INTRODUCTORY PRICE(KSHS)

CLIENT OFFER PRICE(KSHS)

2 Bed Units

9

7,900,000.0

6,720,000.0

3 Bed Units

14

11,500,000.0

9,780,000.0

Total

23

 

  • Our Chief Investment Officer (CIO) and Senior Partner, Elizabeth Nkukuu, CFA, emerged among Kenya’s “Top 40 Women Under 40” as revealed by Business Daily. See the link: Elizabeth Nkukuu on Top 40 Women Under 40. Commenting in recognition, our Managing Partner, Edwin H. Dande said, “Elizabeth is exceptionally skilled, committed and passionate about investments. She is a strong advocate for our clients, our standards of excellence and our brand. We congratulate her on receiving one of the most prestigious recognitions in business in the region.”
  • Our Senior Investment Analyst, Duncan Lumwamu, was on KTN’s Life and Style, discussing and sharing insights on financial planning. See the link: Duncan Lumwamu on KTN
  • Cytonn Technologies, the technology affiliate of Cytonn Investments Management Limited, is seeking a dynamic Business Manager to formulate and execute its strategy, build and retain client relationships in the technology industry, manage current client accounts to maximize revenue and identify emerging opportunities to bring in new business through a variety of lead generation activities. For more details and application, please visit the link: Cytonn Technologies Business Manager
  • We continue to beef up the team with several ongoing hires: Careers at Cytonn.

Fixed Income

During the week, T-bills were oversubscribed with overall subscription decreasing to 175.7%, compared to 249.0% recorded the previous week. Subscription rates decreased across all tenors with the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day papers coming in at 225.0%, 125.7% and 192.7%, from 274.3%, 182.0% and 299.1%, respectively, the previous week. The decline in subscription rates is attributed to the net decline in liquidity of Kshs. 16.0 bn in the money markets. From the subscriptions, it appears that investors are not too clear on the direction of interest rates as both the short-term and the long-term T-bills recorded higher levels of subscription than the medium-term T-bill. Yields declined across all tenors with the 91, 182 and 364-day papers decreasing to 8.0%, 10.8% and 10.9% from 8.1%, 10.9% and 11.1%, respectively, the previous week.

The 91-day T-bill is currently trading below its 5-year average of 10.4%. The downward trend for the 91-day paper is mainly attributed to: (i) the enactment of the Banking (Amendment) Act, 2015, effectively lowering lending rates chargeable by commercial banks, hence increasing demand for government papers, and (ii) the government being ahead of its pro-rated domestic borrowing target of Kshs 53.0 bn, having borrowed Kshs 67.4 bn, and currently not under pressure to borrow.

In line with the Securities Issuance Calendar, the Government issued 2 bonds: a 5-year bond (FXD 3/2016/5) and a reopened 20-year bond (FXD 1/2016/20) looking to raise Kshs 25.0 bn for the purpose of budgetary support. Given (i) the Government is not under pressure to finance the 2016/2017 budget, having raised Kshs 67.4 bn against a pro-rated target of Kshs 53.0 bn, and (ii) the enactment of the Banking (Amendment) Act, 2015 resulting in lower lending rates by commercial banks and preference to lend to the less risky government, we expect downward pressure on interest rates. Therefore, with the secondary market trading at 13.6% and 14.8% for the 5-year and 20-year bond, respectively, we are of the view that investors should bid between 13.25% and 13.80% for the 5-year and between 14.0% and 14.9% for the 20-year bond with more bids towards the latter.

The Central Bank Weekly report revealed that the interbank rate declined by 60 bps to 3.4% from 4.0% the previous week despite a net liquidity reduction of Kshs 16.0 bn. The liquidity reduction was as a result of T-bill primary issues, payment of taxes by banks and reverse repo maturities of Kshs 26.6 bn, Kshs 20.5 bn, and Kshs 15.6 bn, respectively. The interbank rate is often determined by the liquidity distributions within the banking sector as opposed to the net liquidity position in the interbank market. Reverse repo purchases during the week stood at Kshs 15.6 bn, an indication that some banks still cannot access liquidity from their peers, and as such resolve to get the same from the CBK. The reverse repo rate is expensive at 10.5% compared to the interbank rate of 3.4%, a clear indication that the said banks still have liquidity pressures and therefore have to pay a premium.

Below is a summary of the money market activity during the week:

all values in Kshs bn, unless stated otherwise

Weekly Liquidity Position - Kenya

Liquidity Injection

 

Liquidity Reduction

 

Term Auction Deposit Maturities

0.0

T-bond sales

0.0

Government Payments

11.8

Transfer from Banks - Taxes

20.5

T-bond Redemptions

0.0

T-bill (Primary issues)

26.6

T-bill Redemptions

18.8

Term Auction Deposit

0.0

T-bond Interest

0.5

Reverse Repo Maturities

15.6

Reverse Repo Purchases

15.6

Repos

0.0

Repos Maturities

0.0

   

Total Liquidity Injection

46.7

Total Liquidity Withdrawal

62.7

 

 

Net Liquidity Reduction

(16.0)

According to Bloomberg, yields on the 5-year and 10-year Eurobond increased by 0.2% and 0.4% week on week to 4.6% and 7.2% from 4.4% and 6.9%, respectively the previous week. This is attributed to foreign investors demanding a premium as a result of the recent terrorist attack attempt in Mombasa, raising concerns on the security situation in the country. Since the mid – January 2016 peak, yields on Kenyan Eurobond have declined by 4.2% and 2.4% on account of improving macroeconomic conditions. This is an indication that Kenya remains an attractive investment destination. Last week, Ghana issued its USD 750.0 million Eurobond at a yield of 9.3% the sale being approximately 5.0x oversubscribed, indicating that the timing is perfect to issue a Eurobond given the low yields in the developed markets. Given the yield levels for Kenya’s Eurobond, we think that now would be a good time for the government to consider issuing a Eurobond given that: (i) Kshs 462.3 bn of the current fiscal year’s budget is expected to come from foreign borrowing, (ii) the 2017 elections will possibly make foreign investors shy off, and (iii) the possibility of a US Fed rate hike may drive investor focus away from emerging and frontier markets to the safer US market.

The Kenya Shilling was stable against the dollar at Kshs 101.3, on account of reduced dollar demand from firms in the import business and inflows from commodity export firms. On a year to date basis, the shilling has appreciated by 1.0% against the dollar. We expect the Central Bank to utilize the foreign exchange reserve, which currently stands at 5.2 months of import cover, to support the currency in case of adverse forex market movement.

Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) confirmed that the base rate cited in the Banking (Amendment) Act, 2015 is the Central Bank Rate (CBR), currently at 10.5%. This translates to the lending rate being capped at 14.5%, 4.0 percentage points above the CBR, and the deposit rate at 7.35%, 70.0% of the CBR. Clarity around the base rate will enable the sector settle in with the new regulation and reduce uncertainty among investors. As highlighted on our H1’2016 Banking Sector Report, we are of the view that innovation and efficiency will be the key differentiator between banks in this new regime.

Kenya has suspended plans to cross-list its USD 2.0 bn Eurobond on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) until foreign investors are allowed to trade in shares and bonds directly without intervention by local stockbrokers. Despite the introduction of a trading platform for foreign-currency-denominated bonds, NSE has not implemented the Direct Market Access (DMA) facility where investors will be able to place their buy/sell orders directly using the stockbrokers’ infrastructure, a key reform necessary for the cross-listing of the sovereign bond, currently trading on the Irish Stock Exchange (ISE). This means that Kenyans cannot have access to the debt instrument. Cross listing the Eurobond will increase the market-base and hence demand for Kenya’s Eurobonds as more people, including Kenyans will be able to participate easily in secondary market trade.

The government is ahead of its domestic borrowing target for this fiscal year, 2016/2017, having borrowed Kshs 67.4 bn for the current fiscal year against a target of Kshs 53.0 bn (assuming a pro-rated borrowing throughout the year of Kshs 229.6 bn budgeted for the full fiscal year). Interest rates, which had reversed trends due to Government borrowing given the new fiscal year, characterized by an uptick in inflation rates and tight liquidity in the money market, are currently witnessing downward pressure owing to the enactment of The Banking (Amendment) Act, 2015. It is due to this uncertainty that we advise investors to be biased towards short to medium-term papers.

Equities

During the week, the market registered mixed performance with NASI and NSE 25 gaining by 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, while NSE 20 declined marginally by 0.1%, taking their YTD performances to (9.7%), (17.5%), and (20.7%) for NASI, NSE 25 and NSE 20, respectively. Since the February 2015 peak, the market has lost 25.9% and 41.7% for NASI and NSE 20, respectively. This week’s performance was driven by gains in select stocks with EABL, Britam, Co-op and CFC Stanbic rising by 7.6%, 4.4%, 3.0% and 2.6%, respectively, despite subdued performance in some of the large cap stocks. Key losers during the week were NIC Bank, KCB Group, ARM Cement, Bamburi and Equity Group shedding 7.2%, 7.1%, 6.4%, 3.6% and 2.9%, respectively.

Equities turnover slumped 60.2% to close the week at Kshs 1.7 bn from Kshs 4.2 bn the previous week.  Foreign investors remained net buyers with net inflows of USD 2.5 mn, compared to a net inflow of USD 2.2 mn recorded the previous week, with foreign investor participation declining to 70.3% from 84.0% the previous week. Equity Group was the top mover during the week accounting for 23.0% of market activity, with net foreign inflows of USD 2.1 mn. We maintain our expectation of stronger earnings growth in 2016 compared to 2015, supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment. However, the key risk is the volatility in the banking sector that may depress earnings.

The market is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio of 11.5x, versus a historical average of 13.7x, with a dividend yield of 6.6% versus a historical average of 3.4%. The charts below indicate the historical PE and dividend yields of the market.

Centum Investment, through its newly fully owned subsidiary, Greenblade Growers Ltd, has acquired 120 acres of land in Ol Kalau, Nyandarua County for Kshs 89.0 mn to venture into agriculture. Centum plans on producing exotic herbs and vegetables for export to the European Union market with Netherlands as the main market followed by the UK. Centum has recently added agriculture as one of its key target sectors and seeks to expand and diversify further into crop production. Agriculture contributed to 24.6% of the GDP in 2015 and remains the largest contributor to the growth of the Kenyan Economy. We view this as a positive move towards diversifying Centum’s revenue, however, it is not clear whether the company has experience and capabilities in agriculture.

Visa has partnered with Co-operative Bank, Family Bank, KCB Group, and NIC Bank to deliver a new mobile payment system service (mVisa) to Kenyan consumers and merchants. mVisa allows users to directly access all funds in their bank accounts to pay merchants or individuals; users can send money to each other’s accounts directly via mobile as well as pay for goods and services without a point of sale machine regardless of the mobile provider being used. mVisa will be available to both smartphones and feature phones, with the potential to provide a mobile payment service to nearly all 38 million phone users in Kenya. Consumers can also use the mVisa agents for domestic remittances as well as to access their cash if there is no ATM machine nearby. Our view is that the entry of mVisa into Kenya will continue to support financial inclusion, which currently stands at 75.0%. However, local mobile money platforms will face competitive pressures, particularly M-Pesa, which could in turn suppress Safaricom’s margins.

Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA) H1’2016 report

IRA released H1’2016 numbers for the insurance industry showing that total gross insurance premiums registered a year-on-year growth of 8.6% to Kshs 106.0 bn from Kshs 97.7 bn in H1’2015, compared to 15.3% increase a year earlier.

Key highlights of the performance from H1’2015 to H1’2016 include;

  • Claims incurred and benefits paid increased by 16.3% to Kshs 50.5 bn from Kshs 43.4 bn, outpacing net written premium growth, which grew by 10.4% to Kshs 87.0 bn from Kshs 78.8 bn, bringing the loss ratio to 58.0% up from 55.1%. The higher growth in claims is a pointer to the squeezed underwriting margins for the insurance companies. Kenya’s insurance industry remains largely driven by non-life business with non-life premiums contributing 66.2% of total premiums compared to the global scenario where non-life premiums contribute 45.2%
  • Total industry profitability remained flat year-on-year, with industry profit after tax at Kshs 6.8 bn driven by a 1.2% decline in general business profitability
  • Total assets held by the insurance sector increased by 10.1% to Kshs 501.6 bn from Kshs 455.5 bn. Below, please see a summary of the performance:

Income Statement (Kshs. Bn)

H1'2016

H1'2015

Annual Change (%)

Gross Premium Income

106.0

      97.7

8.6%

Net Premium Income

87.0

78.8

10.4%

Claims incurred and benefits paid

50.5

43.4

16.3%

Commissions and Management Expenses

27.6

24.5

12.7%

Profit Before Tax (PBT)

9.7

8.8

9.7%

Profit After Tax (PAT)

6.8

6.8

0.6%

Balance Sheet

H1'2016

H1'2015

Annual Change (%)

Shareholders' Funds

132.7

117.3

13.1%

Investments

400.8

373.5

7.3%

Total Assets

501.6

455.5

10.1%

Total Liabilities

369.0

338.2

9.1%

The H1’2016 performance is in line with our view in our H1’2016 Insurance Report that there is a need to; (i) diversify and tailor-make products to cater for all income brackets, (ii) support the uptake of life insurance through market awareness to grow the low penetration of 3.0% compared to South Africa at 14.0%, and (iii) increase regulation in the industry to be in line with the riskiness of the business and to reduce fraud in the industry.

Below is our equities recommendation table. Key changes from our previous recommendation are:

  • We have updated our coverage on insurance companies this week, and as such there have been changes in the target prices. For details, please see our H1’2016 Insurance Report
  • CfC Stanbic has moved from a “Hold” recommendation, with an upside of 6.0% to a “Lighten” recommendation with an upside of 3.5%, following a 2.6% w/w price increase

all prices in Kshs unless stated

EQUITY RECOMMENDATION

No.

Company

Price as at 09/09/16

Price as at 16/09/16

w/w Change

YTD Change

Target Price*

Dividend Yield

Upside/ (Downside)**

Recommendation

1.

KCB Group***

28.3

26.3

(7.1%)

(40.0%)

42.5

7.5%

69.4%

Buy

2.

ARM

27.3

25.5

(6.4%)

(38.9%)

40.3

0.0%

58.0%

Buy

3.

Bamburi Cement

166.0

160.0

(3.6%)

(8.6%)

231.7

7.8%

52.6%

Buy

4.

Equity Group

26.3

25.5

(2.9%)

(36.3%)

34.2

7.7%

41.8%

Buy

5.

Kenya Re

19.8

19.6

(1.0%)

(6.9%)

26.9

3.6%

41.2%

Buy

6.

Co-op Bank

11.5

11.9

3.0%

(34.2%)

15.2

6.8%

35.1%

Buy

7.

Centum

43.8

42.8

(2.3%)

(8.1%)

56.7

2.4%

35.0%

Buy

8.

HF Group

16.4

16.0

(2.4%)

(28.1%)

19.8

9.2%

33.0%

Buy

9.

DTBK***

139.0

138.0

(0.7%)

(26.2%)

173.2

1.8%

27.3%

Buy

10.

BAT (K)

817.0

817.0

0.0%

4.1%

970.8

6.2%

25.0%

Buy

11.

Britam

10.4

10.8

4.3%

(16.9%)

13.2

2.4%

24.6%

Buy

12.

NIC

27.8

25.8

(7.2%)

(40.5%)

30.8

3.5%

23.1%

Buy

13.

I&M Holdings

86.5

87.5

1.2%

(12.5%)

101.1

3.9%

19.4%

Accumulate

14.

Barclays

8.8

8.7

(0.6%)

(36.0%)

9.2

9.7%

15.4%

Accumulate

15.

CIC Insurance

4.0

4.0

1.3%

(35.5%)

4.4

2.5%

12.5%

Accumulate

16.

Jubilee Insurance

460.0

466.0

1.3%

(3.7%)

482.2

1.8%

5.3%

Hold

17.

CfC Stanbic

77.0

79.0

2.6%

(4.2%)

75.5

7.9%

3.5%

Lighten

18.

Liberty

13.2

14.0

6.1%

(28.2%)

13.9

0.0%

(0.7%)

Sell

19.

Standard Chartered***

190.0

189.0

(0.5%)

(3.1%)

169.9

6.6%

(3.5%)

Sell

20.

Safaricom

19.0

18.9

(0.5%)

16.0%

16.6

3.6%

(8.5%)

Sell

21.

Sanlam Kenya

33.0

35.0

6.1%

(41.7%)

30.5

0.0%

(12.9%)

Sell

22.

NBK

6.4

6.8

5.5%

(57.1%)

2.7

0.0%

(60.0%)

Sell

*Target Price as per Cytonn Analyst estimates

 

**Upside / (Downside) is adjusted for Dividend Yield

 

***Indicates companies in which Cytonn holds shares in

 

Accumulate – Buying should be restrained and timed to happen when there are momentary dips in stock prices.

 

Lighten – Investor to consider selling, timed to happen when there are price rallies

 

We are neutral with a bias to positive on Equities given the higher earnings growth prospects, supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment.

Private Equity

CDC Group, UK’s development finance institution, has allocated USD 20.0 mn to EuroMena Fund III, a 9-year closed-end generalist private equity fund, and another USD 20.0 mn to Atlantic Coast Regional Fund II (ACRF II), a 10-year growth equity fund, managed by Dakar-based Advanced Finance and Investment Group (AFIG Funds). EuroMena Fund III, which is primarily focused on minority positions in SMEs and mid cap companies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, closed in May 2016 with USD 150.0 mn capital commitments. With existing investments in Elephant in Nigeria, Jasmin in Tunisia, BS Invest in Tunisia, Cap Retail in Morocco, and Investex Algérie in Algeria, the fund expects to make another 8-10 investments with estimated values ranging from USD 10.0 mn to USD 20.0 mn on each, as it seeks to expand its investments in Sub-Saharan Africa after their successful fundraising. ACRF Fund II is currently targeting to raise USD 300.0 mn with an aim of investing in African companies exhibiting strong regional growth potential through equity and near-equity. The fund will focus on agribusiness, logistics and healthcare, infrastructure, financial services, consumer and retail investments in Central and West Africa. The two fundraising initiatives have been driven by CDC Group with the aim of: (i) unearthing and delivering Africa’s economic potential by providing entrepreneurs with access to long-term risk capital, (ii) growing businesses from national successes into regional and well established franchises by supporting their expansion operations, and (iii) creating job opportunities and improving living standards by investing in growing SMEs.

IRESS, a supplier of technology for financial markets, wealth management and the mortgage industry, has agreed to acquire INET BFA, a financial data business owned by South African publisher Media 24, for USD 10.5 mn by 30th November 2016. The deal will see IRESS: (i) align its strategy and objectives in South Africa ICT and financial markets by providing clients with a broad range of unified data and financial technology solutions, (ii) build up on its operations in the region by strengthening its capability in South Africa, adding to its existing integrated market data, trading, portfolio and wealth management solutions, and (iii) engage in research data businesses underpinned by comprehensive data and smart technology from INET BFA which has already developed a niche and established a leading position in African products and content on business to business information solutions to financial professionals and institutions for the past 20 years.

Real Estate

Kenya Tourism Board (KTB) launched a six-month long marketing and promotional campaign in major cities of India in a bid to increase tourist arrivals from India by 21.0% at the lapse of the campaign period. The media campaign dubbed 'Kenya Calling' will cost over Kshs 20.0 mn. India has been cited to be the third best performing tourist source market in the world after US & UK and it is also one of the fastest growing tourist source markets to Kenya. This comes in the wake of improving Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Events (MICE) tourism in the country evidenced by a 13.9% increase in tourist arrivals at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) and Moi International Airport between April and May 2016. This year alone, Kenyan has hosted 3 major conferences and the greatest beneficiaries were airlines and hotels around Nairobi which recorded full occupancy rates over the period when the conferences were held. The subsector is expected to continue improving given that that Nairobi being the regional hub, is the most preferred venue for major conferences & conventions. Devolution has also been a major boost to the sector since the county governments hold seminars and conferences frequently. Cytonn Real Estate has scheduled to release a hospitaliy report and one of the areas that we shall shed light on is the MICE tourism subsector.

Knight Frank Kenya released the “Knight Frank Prime Global Cities Index” for the second quarter 2016. The index which tracks price changes in local currency, featured 37 key cities across the world. It categorizes luxury homes as property worth at least USD 0.8 mn (Kshs 80.0 mn). A key highlight of the index was that prices of prime luxury homes in Nairobi continued to increase, rising by 2.1%. There was a 1.3% price growth since the beginning of the year and then a 0.2% decrease between April and June 2016.

The relatively low price increase over the past 3 months could be attributed to the fact that as the election year is drawing closer, the diaspora and local market are shying away from investing in property over uncertainty of the political environment in the country. Supply of prime residential property has been growing gradually, with such homes increasingly being located in gated compounds. We foresee a slowdown in prices of the properties based on this reason. The price change from the index is as illustrated below: -

Our outlook on the real estate market in Kenya remains positive given its continued high returns and its resilience to macro-economic factors. It is hence prudent to invest in the sector but after careful evaluations of the return prospects and market trend to gain maximum returns.

 

Kenya Listed Insurance Companies H1’2016 Report

Following the release of the H1’2016 results by insurance firms, we have carried out an analysis on Kenya’s insurance sector to decipher any material changes from our FY’2015 Insurance Report. In our analysis of the insurance sector, we offer our view on which insurance firms are the most attractive and stable for investment from a franchise value and from a future growth opportunity perspective. We also offer our view on the status and outlook for the sector. See our H1'2016 insurance report here.

The report is themed "Given transition in the banking sector, what next for insurance?", as the insurance sector still struggles with low penetration, slowing premium growth, increased cases of fraudulent claims and the required increase in capital following adoption of a risk based capital adequacy framework. In addition, with the recent interest rate caps, the financial services industry as a whole has been hit by poor sentiment and we expect increased regulation across the sector going forward.

On the back of a growing and stable economic environment in Kenya, the country’s insurance sector has also experienced robust growth over the years, with the financial services sector in Kenya currently contributing 10.1% to Kenya’s GDP growth, from a 3.5% contribution 10-years ago. This is as a result of (i) convenience and efficiency through insurance firms adopting alternative channels for both distribution and premium collection such as bancassurance and improved agency networks, (ii) advancement in technology and innovation making it possible to make premium payments through mobile phones, and (iii) a demographic boost in Kenya, such as a growing middle class, which has led to increased disposable income, thereby increasing demand for insurance products and services.

On valuations, insurance companies are trading at a price to book of 1.1x compared to the banking sector which trades at 0.9x. A direct correlation can be seen in the performance of insurance stocks with that of the Nairobi Securities Index.

Following the strong growth achieved by the insurance sector over the last decade, there is need for the sector to transition into a more stable and sustainable sector. The Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA) is at the forefront of this initiative, pushing for the observance of prudential guidelines, better corporate governance of financial institutions, increased transparency in reporting of results, and using a risk-based approach to capitalization, with varying risk charges on respective investment options. As indicated in our H1’2016 Insurance Report, the key areas of focus in the sector include the following;

  • Over-insured with Low Penetration:The number of insurance companies in Kenya amount to 51 firms, which equates to about 1.1 insurance company for every 1 million Kenyans, a similar ratio to Kenya’s banking sector. However, penetration still remains low at 3.0%, lower than the average of 3.5% in Africa, having remained at this figure for a number of years.


This shows that insurance companies will have to improve their strategies to increase penetration. The core issues we see is to innovate into more relevant products to improve uptake. Significant opportunities remain in the Kenyan insurance market, with growth areas identified especially in commercial lines such as oil, real estate and infrastructure,

  • Revenue Diversity and product innovation: With an industry combined ratio average at 127.3%, insurance companies are not profitable from their core business and diversification of their revenues is key to profitability. This has seen more players venturing into real estate to further diversify their revenue streams. Furthermore, Insurance products are not tailored to the common consumer and lacks innovation to target customers with low disposable income. In order to increase penetration in the country, insurance firms must become more innovative with their products and distribution channels. Product innovation is the single biggest disruptive opportunity we see in the sector, and,
  • Regulation & Emphasis on Compliance: With the new Insurance Act, there is going to be increased regulation on capital adequacy and risk charges on respective investment options. This will increase risk-based analysis on investments, improved supervision on internal practices and lead to a more regulated insurance sector, thereby improving investor sentiment.

Based on the Cytonn H1’2016 Insurance Report, we ranked insurance firms from a franchise value and from a future growth opportunity perspective with the former getting a weight of 40% and the latter a weight of 60%. The ranking is as follows;

CYTONN’S H1’2016 INSURANCE REPORT RANKINGS

Company

Franchise Value Total Score

Total Return Score

Composite H1'16 Score

H1'16 Rank

FY'15 Rank

Kenya Re Insurance

30

1

13

1

1

CIC Insurance

27

3

13

1

4

Jubilee Holdings

34

4

16

3

2

Britam Holdings

37

2

16

3

5

Liberty Kenya Holdings

38

5

18

5

3

Sanlam Kenya

42

6

20

6

6

 

The key take outs from the ranking were;

  • Kenya Re and CIC tied at top position ranking top in the total return score category and franchise score category, respectively. A point to note is that CIC was ranked 4th in the FY’2015 report hence the most improved insurance company, due to a strong franchise score on the back of a low expense and combined ratios well as a high underwriting leverage
  • Sanlam retained its bottom position ranking bottom in both the total return score category and franchise score category

For more details on the ranking methodology, see our H1’2016 Insurance Report.

While the sector is struggling, we are of the view that insurance companies have a lot they can do in order to register considerable growth and improve penetration in the country. Foremost, we expect more synergy between banks and insurance companies to introduce bancassurance as well as the integration of mobile money payments to allow for policy payments through this increasingly preferred transaction medium. We also expect that there will be increased regulation in the sector, as well as increased consolidation to reduce duplication of products by insurance companies. These efforts will improve revenue channels for insurance firms and uptake of insurance as a lifestyle and necessary expense.

 

----------------------

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication, are those of the writers where particulars are not warranted- as the facts may change from time to time. This publication is meant for general information only, and is not a warranty, representation or solicitation for any product that may be on offer. Readers are thereby advised in all circumstances, to seek the advice of an independent financial advisor to advise them of the suitability of any financial product for their investment purposes.

;
© 2017 Cytonn Investments Management Ltd